It took a little time to figure out what was moving Gold, was it risk on/ risk off / flight to safety, there was no consistent pattern until about 5 weeks ago, it became clear gold is acting as a sentiment indicator for more easing or QE.
In light of today's events and with the F_O_M_C meeting coming June 19/20, it's worth taking a look at GLD... I find it interesting, but not quite sure what to make of it yet.
First the bigger picture in GLD/gold as it just pulled a massive head fake.
We have a downtrend, a bearish descending triangle (consolidation/continuation pattern), technical traders expect this triangle to break to the down side and start a new leg down, GLD instead (and as usual with popular price patterns in popular assets that are closely watched) pulls a typical Wall Street burn of technical traders and GLD pops to the upside.
GLD intraday this morning... falls this a.m. apparently on the policy statement, GLD in a consolidation as the market looks for hints in Bernie's Q&A.
The 60 min chart which recently pulled a big head fake from a bearish descending triangle (consolidation/continuation pattern), put in a huge 60 min positive divergence on the 30th (I wish I had bought-other members made 200+% with calls), now there's a negative divergence forming.
The 15 min chart shows the same theme, accumulation on the 30th and a negative divergence which is pretty well defined.
Switching gears to the shorter term charts, the 1 min is rising in a leading positive during the Bernie Q&A, perhaps GLD will make a move higher before reversing, this is the norm for reversals.
2 min chart, negative on the open, also seeing strength during the Q&A
The 3 min is starting to see the same strength bleed in to the timeframe.
And the 5 min.
My interpretation is as I said, a move higher in GLD before a downside reversal, it may be GLD pulls back on QE uncertainty going in to the F_O_M_C meeting the 19/20th of this month.
I have no opinion as to what this means re: QE.
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