Thursday, June 7, 2012

Market Consensus-Bernie's Speech is not confirming Yellen's comments.

I'm trying to listen on CSPAN, trying to finish reading the statement again, but from the Wall Street crowd, the consensus is Bernie, unlike Yellen, has given no new information on QE 4.

Some excerpts...


"Bernanke didn't reveal anything new in his prepared remarks. He was general and vague about what the Fed might do with monetary policy. He reiterated the Fed was willing to do more, if needed, but offered no clues as to whether additional support was needed at this time.
It seems Bernie has evolved the "Greenspeak" concept (Greenspan could talk for 4 hours and no one would have a clue what he was thinking), Bernie seems to be using the same model but via good cop/ bad cop. Consider Yellen's comments last night, the market expected that as she is the F_E_D's #2, Bernie's testimony would follow suit, it hasn't.
Here is the initial analyst interpretation:

"Bernanke noted downside risks to the economy, but did not indicate whether the situation had deteriorated enough to warrant further action."

"The one thing we continue to hear is fiscal policy. It seems like the Fed is handing off the baton to the federal government in referring to the fiscal cliff which these tax cuts will expire at the end of the year. The Fed continues to hammer on the idea that we have done all we can and it's up to the politicians to do their part and not undo what we have done." This also has been my interpretation of F_E_D statements over the last several months-i's up to Congress now. It seems the F_E_D has realized they are an enabler and are hinting that they will not be used as such anymore.

"Here's the thing: he doesn't have a lot of options at this point. What can he say? He's there for accommodation if needed, but the data isn't bad enough to justify anything further at this point, and that includes the jobs number on Friday. I'm expecting more of the same."

"I don't think he is definitely saying that QE3 is on the way. He's saying what he has said before, reassuring people that they will act if things deteriorate further. In other words, they are there if needed but they don't feel they are needed yet."

"The headlines from Bernanke are fairly bland, with the meat of his discussion to come from the Q&A. People were maybe expecting something more explicit in his speech, but any details will come from the Q&A."

"He's cautiously optimistic, but saying there are still downside risks to the economy and capital markets. We're selling off because Bernanke didn't reiterate the earlier comments from Janet Yellen, which really takes QE3 off the table in the immediate term."


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