SLV Update

I dislike analyzing SLV more than GLD because of the manipulation of SLV. When JPM took over Bear Stearns they inherited a large short silver position, remember JPM was doing the F_E_D a favor, one I believe was re-paid. However since updating GLD I've had a ton of emails about SLV/silver.

Here's some of the manipulation I'm talking about.

 You may remember the viral campaign by Max Keiser to break JPM's short which was being defended by JPM's Blythe Masters. It seemed like (and rumor was) $32 was the level JPM was defending, not wanting SLV to cross above that, it finally did and ran up about 45% very quickly, then the COMEX hit SLV with 5 or 6 consecutive margin hikes in silver, even after the move up was broken and silver was heading down, they kept hitting silver with margin hikes, it seemed excessive and it seemed like a favor called in, SLV returned to the $32 level. This is why I'm not a huge fan of the PM's and silver especially.

 The downtrend in SLC started with what I think is a head fake move above local resistance, ending with a huge bearish engulfing pattern, the trend down ensued until SLV formed a bear pennant which has the same implications as the descending triangle in GLD, traders expect a leg down with a break below the pennant, instead it broke to the upside.

 Shorts were squeezed, look at the volume on the breakout above the pennant, technical analysis dogma says this shouldn't happen and while I'm sure there were some long silver bugs chasing the move, much of that volume was almost certainly short covering. The bears were head faked.

 The 60 min SLV chart shows the negative divergence at the top, this is why I think that was a head fake move as well, then confirmation on the trend down, a positive divergence on May 16th-the same time we noticed unusual activity in the EUR/USD, the kind of activity that would benefit silver. The leading positive divergence is during the bear pennant.

 15 min chart, the general trend in 3C is a positive divergence during the pennant.

 A detailed 5 min chart shows a negative divergence/distribution in to the head fake breakout and SLV has fallen since.

 A look at the 5 min intraday chart shows a negative divergence, trend confirmation and a leading positive divergence later today similar to GLD.

 The 1 min shows a leading positive divergence intraday after a negative on the open.

 The same for the 2 min

And the same for the 3 min which also shows distribution in to the gap up.

Right now the intraday positive divergences are strong enough to cause a consolidation, I would think though that a similar situation as I described in GLD may play out in SLV. We'll need to see some better looking charts to give higher probabilities, but in letting the trade come to you, my plan would be to see if SLV/GLD will make it to a new regional high on negative divergences as they move higher and look to short them, it worked well on the last GLD trade for 215% gain, if it doesn't happen, nothing ventured, nothing lost, there are thousands of stocks to trade.