Market Update...

As posted yesterday morning re: market action

The most important chart in the post yesterday with the comments under the chart from yesterday...

"Here are the areas where we may see some action, the apex of the bear pennant is thought to be resistance, bears will look for a failure at that point, any backing off from that area and shorts will see it as a shorting opportunity, the next area they'll be watching is the major trendline resistance, this is the last stand for bears, we may see some game playing in that area, but as soon as that area is broken, the short squeeze should be in full effect."


And today...

Keep in mind a few things, first it takes a long time to capture and post this many charts so there's some movement between the first capture and the last, for instance the DIA/SPY were captured first and the IWM/QQQ last, some of the 1 min positive momentum on the QQQ/IWM is not seen on the SPY/DIA because it wasn't there when they were captured, now it is there and the 1-2 min charts look more like the IWM/QQQ. Also remember that the 15 min chart is the main trend, the shorter term charts are less influential. Last keep in mind that any changes start on the shortest charts like 1-2 min and if they are strong enough, bleed to the 3-5 min.  The 5 min is showing something that has already occurred, the 1-2 min charts are showing something that is developing and if it is strong enough and continues, will effect the 3-5 min charts. This is a rather large post so the 1 min charts are changing rapidly, I've already confirmed the SPY/DIA looking like the QQQ/IWM

 DIA 1 min in line this a.m., starting to make a positive divergence , this is now stronger at last check.

 The 2 min chart starting to see the 1 min positive bleed in to the 2 min, this is now a positive divergence, no question mark.

 The 3 min negative on the open, otherwise intraday in line, now also going positive

 The overall most important chart, the 15 min still strongly leading positive.

 IWM 1 min positive after a negative on the open.

 IWM 2 min seeing the positive 1 min bleed through

 IWM 3 min negative on the open, in line intraday, now improving and moving up

 IWM 5 min quite negative on the open, we'll see if the shorter timeframes change this

 IWM 15 min still leading positive very strongly.

 QQQ 2 min from in line to positive

 3 min negative on the open, leading negative intraday, also improving, now moving up.

 QQQ 5 min quite negative on the open and through the day, leading negative, starting to see some upward movement, the short term charts will have to grow stronger to move this chart.

 QQQ 15 min still leading very positive, showing a small relative negative on today's open

 SPY 1 min moving positive, more positive now.

 SPY 2 min negative on the open, pretty much in line intraday with a leading negative bias, but now starting to move up.

 3 min negative on the open, in line intraday, starting to stabilize.

 SPY 5 min negative on the open, a leading negative component, now starting to move up.

15 min still leading very positive.


My initial take is the 15 min chart is still so very strong I don't think this is the end of anything, but rather some of the difficulties mentioned in yesterday morning's post. The 5 min represents what has happened already as does the 15 min, now it's the short term charts that will determine where we are going from here as they either continue to strengthen and effect the 25 min charts as I think they will or something else.  I also think the 5 min charts' ugliness has something to do with where price is relative to resistance and retail bear's expectations as mentioned yesterday, it seems quite clear from a former post that the bear pennant was engineered, not naturally occurring, I think we may be seeing similar action now.