Tuesday, July 10, 2012

AAPL Follow Up

As mentioned, I closed the AAPL trade out of an abundance of caution being there seems to be a very rapid shift in the tine and character of underlying trade throughout the market, not in just a fe places, but nearly everywhere I look. This change in character seems to have accelerated through the day, I may be paranoid (but what trader isn't and rightfully so?), but it seems to me as if someone was privy to some conformation (obviously not released yet), while others may not have been privy to the information, but took notice of the change in character of trade, you have to understand they aren't just seeing simple price, they are seeing order flow, the size of the orders, who's placing them, changes in FX and credit markets, etc-all things the average trader would never look for nor have the capability to look for.

AAPL's underlying trade was significantly bad enough to justify the put position and even as AAPL gapped up this a.m., as I mentioned yesterday, the extent of the 3C charts did not have me concerned at all. What does have me concerned is the very high correlation in the market, meaning if the market moves in one direction, most stocks (more than usual) are going to do the same , whether they fundamentally/technically deserve to or not; that's why I too a quick 1-day profit in AAPL and closed that trade down.

A 12% 1 day gain, in this environment, I'll take it.

If I don't understand what is going on or the trends are quickly changing, I'm going to react.

A far as the extent of change in AAPL, as mentioned also earlier, if this were just AAPL and everything else was moving as would be expected on a day like today, it wouldn't have been a big deal and wouldn't have seen me close the position, but after seeing several assets move VERY quickly and very strongly toward the end of the day, the movement in AAPL took on an entirely new meaning, I'd rather take the profit than wonder what's going on and if that profit will be there tomorrow.

I have no problem with the short/put position in AAPL as far as 3C charts go...
It's the market correlation that bothers me.

As for AAPL charts...
 1 min negative divergence with a VERY typical had fake move today that we see so often before a reversal (in yellow).

 Here's the head fake move, a gap above resistance, note the big green volume bar, so retail took the bait and AAPL closed down 0.94%, even more considering the gap up that retail bought.

 The 1 min chart shows a small positive divergence, this alone is not bothersome to me, it would be perfectly normal.

However the 3 min chart leading positive in the last hour with many other stocks/risk assets, was a little more bothersome.

If this turns out to be nothing, I'd be more than happy to re-enter AAPL short or with a put.



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