EUR/USD - ES Update, EU downgrades and PFG the next major short trade?

Just as the shorter term Euro charts were showing in this post this afternoon, the Euro has lost ground since the close.

Also I mentioned ES and 3C as well as CONTEXT not looking as enthusiastic as ES in to AA's earnings...

3C is negative in to the after hours highs on AA's earnings and another negative divergence around 8 p.m. EDT.

We still have a long night ahead of us, but I'm curious to see if my guess about AA might hold up.

"Update from ZH

 " AA beats (headlines - at first glance though Adjusted EBITDA is half Q2 2011's) and is holding modest gains after-hours - though well of initial knee-jerk reaction highs"


I wonder if this might be a "sell the news event later as the devil is always in the details and may explain why the 1 and 3 min charts were positive today while 5 min, etc was negative.


In other words, the short term accumulation by market makers/specialists on the 1 and 3 minute timeframe would see those accumulated shares being sold in to after hours and as the devil in the details is discounted by the market, the 5 and 15 min negatives take over. This "could" also be enough to move the market in to the gap early tomorrow and if the AA story plays out something like I described, would provide some of the catalyst to finish up the short term divergences in the market that have suggested a move in to the gap before pulling back in a more serious fashion."

Oh and just for giggles, our favorite rating agency, Egan Jones, "the little train that could", downgraded the Netherlands to A; as a reminder the Netherlands were 1 of 4 remaining EU countries with the best rating of AAA, no longer though at least in Egan Jones view. Now let see what the other 3 majors do.

Austria was also cut to A, both outlook negative.

As for the Netherlands, they were cut for the very same reasons they have been poo-pooing the ESM seniority status....

From EJ:

The Netherlands is among the European Union's top economies. However, the Netherlands has been shouldering the burdens of other EU countries and their banks via its exposure to the EFSF and indirectly via the ECB. The country's debt to GDP of 75% as of 2011 (expect near 82% for 2012) and a deficit to GDP of 4.7% is weak and is understated due to exposures to the EU periphery and the Netherland's financial institutions. 

Finally, PFG to be the next MF Global?

The 3C charts show something that looks like big, recent trouble. This may be a short worth looking in to.

PFG 15 min longer term chart shows a strong area of accumulation that should have led to a very nice uptrend, instead it looks like distribution set in very suddenly and very aggressively.

 A closer look reveals a 15 min divergence that is a lot worse than the market divergences, it seems someone knew something about PFG since May, luckily it looks to still be in decent shorting position, maybe we'll even get  nice tactical entry. More of PFG tomorrow.