Tuesday, July 10, 2012

USO Update

Even more strangeness found in USO...

 USO 1 min trend, this is quite negative and it appears that USO has been under distribution for a move lower for some time, where it gets strange is this afternoon, although there were some earlier signals that I was not comfortable with and thus did not take a position in USO.

 It's not as visible on the longer term 1 min trend, but looking closer at today's intraday action, the 1 min chart went from a negative divergence, price moved down as would be expected and it seems it has moved down in to accumulation as we now have a fast forming leading positive divergence on the 1 min chart formed over the last hour alone that is now hitting nearly 2 day highs, that's a fast divergence and would suggest strong underlying activity underway. Although oil does have it own set of unique fundamentals, for the most part it is considered a risk asset and typically is going to move in similar fashion to the market, certainly with what we are seeing in the Euro/Dollar.


 Being the divergence is only an hour old, it is just starting to migrate to the 2 min chart.

If I were smart money and had some new information that would move the market up, I would absolutely allow prices to drop and buy on the cheap. What most people see is price alone, we are looking at underlying institutional activity so most people would have no clue.

I can't get too overly worked up about a 1 min divergence, but this is being seen almost everywhere I look.

 The 3 min in a relative positive position rather than downside confirmation.

 The 5 min which was bothersome to me earlier, in a stronger relative positive position.

There's no migration to the 15 min chart, I wouldn't expect it as the 1 min leading positive is only an hour old, but again, something strange seems to be underway, almost as if there's some information Wall Street is aware of that changed very quickly.

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