Monday, July 23, 2012

AAPL Update

Last time we had a good pop in AAPL we had a strong positive divergence just before earnings, the day before in fact. In addition we had a similar very strong divergence in Tech as a group, that was a nice signal, easy to see. I don't consider AAPL to be a leaky ship and I don't see anything that suggests a leak to me as they report tomorrow I believe, but I will want to take a look at Tech in general as well.

AAPL is a little tough because as I explained some time ago, AAPL seemed to undergo a fairly large accumulation period, thus I didn't expect to see and haven't seen many positive divergences as the accumulated position would just be worked off without adding much more to it, that seems to have been the case and still be the case with AAPL.

 AAPL 1 min intraday is not that different from anything else for instance, Tech is below on a 1 min chart.

 Tech 1 min intraday

 The 2 and 3 min AAPL charts also have a recent intraday negative divergence.

 The 5 min AAPL chart though has still held up pretty well, perhaps the 3 min chart will deteriorate some more and start to chew away at the 5 min chart or perhaps there's some real short term strength here.

 The 15 min trend has been pretty negative as I would expect as accumulated shares are more or less just burned through (sold) in to higher prices.

 The 30 min chart shows the area that I believe was a major accumulation area and therefore we haven't seen any further areas like that as there's been no need. If this is the case, the longer term chart here seems to be showing the position either nearly sold or sold.

The longer term hourly chart shows the primary trend, while AAPL has more or less been in line on the May move higher, it has been from a leading negative position. I know AAPL's track record with earnings and why (they always guide low and come in higher). I don't see anything on AAPL's chart alone that makes me want to go long at this point.

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