Monday, July 23, 2012

Market Update-Other Asset Confirmation

This is a look at very different assets, but they all still have a fairly strong correlation with each other and thus provide good confirmation.

 As many of you probably remember, our likely downside target in a pullback was going to be below the flag, just as our eventual upside target will be above the flag, however earlier today I said, if it were me, I'd run  price back up in to the flag, this would likely cause the most confusion and hurt the most traders. Price isn't too far away from re-entering that large flag.

 SPY 5 min chart close up shows the recent negative divergence and the positive divergence on the open as 3C did not move lower to confirm the lower low, but rather stayed in a leading positive position, at least for the near term.

 We would expect to see some strength in the Euro to support the market, here on the 3 min chart (also on the 1 and 2 min) we have a positive leading divergence suggesting the Euro will move higher to support the market very short term. Most charts are negative at 5 mins, so this divergence thus far seems to be for a short term move.

 We would expect to see the opposite in the $USD and her we have  3 min leading negative divergence in the $USD, a slumping $USD would lend strength to the market.

 VXX and UVXY which trade opposite the market (remember I closed 1 Call position Friday and half of the remaining one this morning-looking for a better entry) also have a 3 min negative divergence instead of confirming the upside move, so I'm happy with the decision to take profits on half that position.

TLT is the Treasury ETF, in a down market we would expect to see a flight to safety and TLT is up, yet it has a negative divergence and 3C is not confirming the mov higher, this again suggests a move out of the flight to safety trade and back toward the risk on trade in the market.

ES is also starting to show a half way decent positive divergence on a 1 min chart.

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