Monday, July 23, 2012

BIDU Beats on Revenue, Earnings and Guidance...

10 years ago I would have looked at BIDU as a perfect short right here, instead I was able to short it nearly $40 higher, but the point is as I said several times today, "I like BIDU, if it's not earnings, it's something else".

Taking a look at the chart alone from a textbook technical Analysis perspective, BIDU is a high probability short (today before earnings).

Looking at BIDU from Technical Analysis's perspective, BIDU topped in a large triangle, it's been in a down trend and formed the perfect pattern seen in a downtrend, a descending triangle, which suggests the next leg of the downtrend is starting and it is below the support of that price pattern with a failed test at the white arrow, also large red volume-"IT MUST be Wall Street Selling!", that was the attitude back then.

Instead I see BIDU this way...

BIDU makes a higher high and 3C makes a lower high at an important head fake area, the yellow box is where we actually shorted BIDU for the core short positions. However the technical set up seen above looks a lot like a counter trend bear trap and while price made new lows, 3C is positively divergence making higher lows. I don't want to abandon my core short position, but I do want a taste of any upside action in BIDU, maybe I'll even add to my core short if things work out-you know why I'm not trading around core positions which I'd normally do.

As for the other charts...

 No, the 1 min intraday chart didn't give me a signal that there was a leak in BIDU earnings and really I didn't care if they missed, I was in BIDU long for another reason.

 When in doubt, go to the longer term charts. This 15 min chart leaves a pretty clear impression of a divergence and trend in 3C.

 This 30 min chart shows some sharp accumulation at lows that probably brought  lot of short sellers in quick, allowing smart money to accumulate quickly because of the supply the short sellers offered.

 The same thing on the 60 min chart and that's an important timeframe.

But, why be long and short the same stock? Does it really matter if both positions are in the green? Actually it's not something I prefer to do, but core shorts are remaining in place with hedges for reasons you are aware of, it doesn't mean that I have to hate BIDU, if there's money to be made on the upside, why not take that trade?

As far as where I think BIDU is going in the big picture and how I want to use price strength to my advantage when thinking about the big picture, the daily chart below says it all.


However nothing goes straight up or down in the market, right now BIDU is up 5.5% in after hours.

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