Monday, July 23, 2012

Market Update

Hopefully this update will show you the trend of underlying trade vs the intraday movements, it's not much different than a price trend, the main trend is what is most important, however nothing moves straight up or down so the counter trend moves (intraday moves) are useful as entry/exit points, just keep in mind the scale of each (trend vs counter trend).

Here are the 3 major averages...
 You already saw the 1 min SPY, the 1 min DIA looks similar, keep in mind though that the longer the timeframe, the more important the signal, 1 in is useful for intraday signals and when there's a trend can be useful for signals a little longer, especially if longer timeframe charts are confirming, but a 2, 3 or 5 min chart has much more power than a 1 min chart; just as a 30 and 60 min chart are more powerful than the key 15 min chart.

 DIA 5 min trend, this is part of the reason we have been looking for the next trend to be down for a couple of weeks now, yet notice there is an intraday positive today, it doesn't compare to the trend, but it can still move the market in ways that can be useful to you.

 A close up of the last several days of the 5 min chart and today specifically, this is why I wanted to close half of the UVXY $9 Calls at the profit they were at.

 The 15 min chart's trend is much more negative in the DIA, yet it even shows some small signs of a positive divergence intraday today, thus my longer term shorts stay in place, the leveraged shorts that will move around a lot on an intraday basis, I want to try to trade around those. All Core shorts stay in place.

 QQQ 1 min trend is overall deeply leading negative, yet we have a relative positive divergence intraday today

 A closer look at the 1 min intraday relative positive divergence and the QQQ responding.

 The 3 min trend makes pretty clear why we were expecting the next trend in the market to be down, yet again we have intraday positives. If we can get enough price strength, I want to sell in to the short term positive and trade with the longer term negative trend.

 A close up of the same chart as above, just looking at the last two days and the positive this morning. I rarely trust a.m. trade.

 QQQ 5 min trend is horrible as it makes a double top

 The SPY 1 min you already saw zoomed in

 The 3 min trend, leading negative, but with an intraday positive divergence.

Here's a closer view of the same chart as above. You know what the 15 min SPY chart looks like.


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