Friday, July 20, 2012

Early Indications-SPY

As I have mentioned several times this week, the 1 min charts that have been roughly in line with price, not positive or negative to any large degree, have been deceiving or like a thin veneer concealing the rot going on in underlying trade. The SPY example is one example, but believe it or not, it is actually one of the charts that has held up the best, other averages look worse and now we are finally seeing what I was calling a "Thin branch (price) snap".

 Again the 1 min looks rather benign, but dig a little deeper...

 The 2 min trend has been leading negative and badly.

 The 3 min gives a better perspective.

This bad relative divergence is actually one of the better looking 15 min charts, so the rot has been there for most of the week, we are just seeing it break now, this is why the short positions were started the last couple of days to take advantage of the near term trend, a pullback which could be a little nastier than what we normally associate with a pullback.




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