Friday, July 20, 2012

Market Update-Intraday-Closing move still coming

Now we are getting signals on ES as well...
At the green arrow ES is in confirmation with 3C making lower lows until ES makes the low of the day, 3C is positively divergent at the low and after that has moved to a stronger leading positive divergence.

As for confirmation among several asset classes...

 Momentum in the SPX has died off to the downside as ROC shows here. As I often remind you, reversals are rarely an event, they tend to be more of a process.

 The SPY 1 min continue building a stronger leading positive divergence in to a flat trading range where we often see accumulation and distribution because of stable prices.

 The SPY 2 min chart has added considerably to the leading positive divergence, suggesting there's been more or heavier intraday accumulation, I would suspect this has something to do with moving the market to the intended op. ex. pin, which obviously seems to be higher, but it could also be used to shake out shorts, especially if the downtrend in the short term trend is to continue on Monday.

 The flight to safety trade, Treasuries are seeing distribution in to strength in the same timeframes as the averages are seeing positive divergences/accumulation, the 3 min chart. Treasuries and the market have an inverse relationship so this is a form of confirmation is a totally different asset class.

 We would expect some support from the Euro and here we have a 2 min leading positive divergence in the Euro.

At the same time, if stock prices move higher, we'd expect weakness in the $USD and here on the 5 min chart we see a negative leading divergence in the $USD intraday. Add all those up with the averages themselves and there's pretty good confirmation for a short term move higher.

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