Friday, July 20, 2012

USO Update

It looks like yesterday and Wednesday's decision to close all remaining July USO calls was the right one as 3C deteriorated quickly in USO yesterday, here's what it's looking like thus far today.

 USO vs the Euro as a proxy for the $USD, oil has been running up on heightened fears over the Middle East against its normal FX/$USD correlation, which has put it on shaky ground. Yesterday 3C dropped support as well, that's when the last of the July Calls were closed yesterday.

 USO 1 min yesterday going leading negative, today it's much worse.

 2 min 3C in a relative negative divergence yesterday, today a leading negative divergence.

 3 min chart going leading negative yesterday, this was the final straw for me for July Calls.

The 5 min has now seen sharp deterioration to a new leading negative low. We'll have to see if the 15 min chart sees migration from weakness on these shorter term charts, for now though, I don't expect USO will improve any time soon other than transient spikes on Middle East news, it seems this leg up has had its back broken.

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