For long time members, you know we have been following UNG with interest for quite a while as fist a change of character was noticed, then a base and lading positive divergences and now we are in the area of a stage 2 mark up. UNG is one of the only long term long positions I like.
Take a look at UNG today, this is why I have sworn to hold on to UNG through pullbacks, crazy trade, whatever may come, I believe this stock is going to hit stage 2 mark up and see a nice up trend develop.
The straight equity long in UNG in the equities model portfolio is already up 24%.
Today UNG is above the area in which I would consider a major milestone, we are not seeing the heavy breakout volume, but that will come from retail.
We didn't see heavy volume on the break above on the 60 min chart, but there was an increase, smart money is not chasing UNG higher, the volume spike may be helped along by smart money, but it is not smart money. That volume spike is what we need to see to put UNG on everyone's radar as they run volume surge scans thinking those surges are smart money buying, smart money as we can see below was in a long time ago.
The 5 min chart shows accumulation on the 17th in a flat area, that is likely smart money. Overall the 5 min chart doesn't look that bad, this could be the breakout move we have been looking for.
The 15 min chart after the first failed breakout attempt as it was not ready, put in a strong accumulation move in June/July on an important timefrmae, that's where the bulk of the last round of accumulation was.
Here the 60 min chart shows accumulation and UNG being sent to lower prices to be accumulated more.
It's the overall 60 min chart that shows how active smart money has been and where in UNG, they don't chase stocks higher, they buy on price weakness. We have a leading 60 min positive divergence, UNG should be pretty close to entering stage 2 mark up, this is where UNG will have its best chance at a trending move. I intend to continue to hold this position open.
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