MArket Update-Opening Indications...

If I were smart money right now, I think I'd be wondering what is going on in the EU, not sure if the ECB is just talking up the market or if there's something more there and if there is something more there, how will Germany (the holder of the change purse) react, how far will Germany go. How far can the ECB really go.

I'd also be wondering how perceived ECB policy will effect F_E_D policy, in other words, a lot of things that I don't think the market can truly discount as these are the types of fundamental events that come around every so often and cause everyone to stop and re-think.

So we are going to go slow, look for clues or shifts under way and look at a lot of different assets to see where there might be a clue.

Here's the near term problem, last week Draghi "Talked the market higher", this week he needs to deliver and there seem to quite a few roadblocks along the way. We already see that bond traders are not so confident, the market even right now is not so confident and it looks like last week's trend of underlying trade was not so confident, here's an example (sometimes trends are better than short term charts for analysis in these situations).

SPY short term trends from last week...

 Remember we expected there to be some noise upside, Draghi's comments last week amplified that, but the 2 min trend didn't seem to confirm, it's in leading negative territory, badly.

 As is the 3 min trend.

 And the 5 min trend.

Many of the averages look like this, it doesn't give a lot of confidence in this move up holding.

So we are going to look at intraday indications for now and see what develops, this means from Friday to today, while still keeping an eye on the whole situation.

 DIA 1 min opening is negative

 As is the 2 min

 IWM 1 min opening was negative, it is seeing a little better looking chart, but that hasn't migrated over to the next timeframe.

 IWM 2 min is still in an ugly negative position from the opening.

QQQ slightly negative on the 1 min from the open.

 2 min as well.

 SPY 1 min above and 2 min below are both negative on the open., the 2 min is worse.

I'll be going through a lot of charts early on, although early trade is often deceptive, I think in this case we can expect there to be some real underlying action, gold will be especially interesting.