Tech and AAPL

These are just more pieces of the puzzle, I'm still trying to work out whether we are going to be looking at a new puzzle with all of the back and forth over MAJOR policy issues in the EU this week, which MUST effect F_O_M_C policy in the US this week. Draghi really picked one heck of a time to stir up the bottom!

First I became interested in the 5 min leading negative divergence in the QQQ, that led me to AAPL naturally.

QQQ Daily chart with a bear flag-like consolidation. According to the precepts of Technical Analysis, this is how a Technical Trader would expect this pattern to play out, the consolidation AWAY from the preceding trend is confirmation that it is indeed a continuation consolidation and the expectation would be for a break to the downside, continuing the preceding trend. So far this works out well with the trend assumptions we've held for several weeks, 1) a short term break to the downside which sucks in shorts 2) that to be a head fake move and a long and stronger move to the upside using the shorts as fuel as they cover and send the market higher, finally the longs jump in on this impressive move to the upside and the trend reverses to the downside this time using the long as fuel to power the move lower back to the primary down trend that started around April.

Does Draghi, the ECB and Germany change all of this? Even perhaps delay it and cause the trends to change slightly? For instance, "if" the market was suppossed to have already broken down in to our short term downtrend and this week's F_O_M_C meeting was to be the catalyst to send the market up on our next trend leg expectation, that would alter the short term downtrend view. Of course we can't know what the ECB or F_O_M_C will do, this is just an example, but it seems that Draghi's sudden change of heart (and it's a BIG ONE) was unforeseen by the market.

 QQQ intraday 1 min is negative for the most part, there is a small positive divergence, maybe we get some intraday upside volatility.

 The trend of the 2 min chart doesn't look good for the market, this would be in line with our short term down trend thinking.

 This is what grabbed my attention, how fast and deep the QQQ 5 min leading negative divergence is today.

 The longer term QQQ 5 min trend, today's move looks strong

 So I looked at AAPL which has a price formation that is the opposite of the QQQ, a bullish flag. Traders would expect AAPL to follow the green arrows, the problem is AAPL already broke to the downside, this stopped out a lot of longs, just look at the volume on the day AAPL broke below the flag. Could APL be entering the flag setting up what Technical analysis would call a "Textbook short"? If so, then those shorts would still be in line with the move expected in the QQQ and they too would most likely be used as fuel for an upside move in AAPL that is along the lines of the sub-intermediate uptrend that was expected after the short term move down.

 AAPL 2 min is largely negative on the day, but also showing a small intraday positive divergence.

 The 3 min chart, like the QQQ 5 min, is leading negative badly.

 As is the 5 min chart of AAPL.

Here's the 5 min chart intraday.

Basically this still looks like our trend expectations are still correct.