It's been a long time since we first noticed a change in character of UNG, some of yo got in at very good prices, the core long position for the equities model portfolio is doing well...
Up 29% and I know many of you got in at better prices.
UNG which is one of the few, if not only long term long positions I like, gained nearly 6% today and still remains above the basing area. It does look like it could see some gap filling in the near term (correction), but it seems to be just sitting there waiting for sentiment to change and a volume surge from retail to set it in to motion in stage 2 mark up. If our trend expectations or ideas hold up, then the resumption of the sub-intermediate trend (up) could be the area where UNG is picked up as a stage 2 (mark up) stock and that's where the trending action is usually found.
Here's an update for UNG...
UNG's base we had been patient with and the recent breakout. What's missing is the volume surge that fools retail in to thinking that smart money is buying, smart money was in long ago. That volume surge is also typically the marker setting the stock up for stage 2 "Mark Up".
In the very near term, today's gap up looks like there was profit taking in to the move, I wouldn't be surprised to see some backing and filling, but it would be nice if the gap held as a break away gap.
The daily trend channel has held the recent trend well so the $20 area should hold, but for my purposes, UNG is a longer term position and I'd have a wider stop than just the 1 day TC.
The 2 min chart also looks like there was profit taking in to the gap up, but it seems to stop right around the 2 min chart so I don't think this was serious distribution.
The 3 min is in line and confirming the move up, hence the reason I think it was just profit taking on the decent move.
The 5 min chart also confirms today's gap up, I wouldn't expect too much of a correction in UNG.
The 15 min chart is also in line, it will probably take more time for the 30/60 min charts to catch up as this was a quick move up in a day.
The bigger picture 4 hour chart shows how UNG went from downside confirmation to leading positive divergences or accumulation, like I said, smart money was in a while ago, but traders still want to see that volume spike as they still believe that's smart money entering the position, that's when they'll chase.
For my purposes, I just leave UNG alone, I feel confident it will take care of itself.
No comments:
Post a Comment