This is pretty extraordinary, I know we have some lift in AAPL today, we have a flat range, but this is more the stuff I'd expect on a move above the intraday triangle, it makes me wonder if there will be one, there should be one as far as market behavior goes and I probably won't add the second half of Friday's put unless we get that move, otherwise I'll likely just leave what's already there in place. The idea is if I'm going to add more, I want a reason for doing it, I want better positioning, less risk, etc. I may change my mind and I'd of course let you know if the probabilities are so crazy here that they make up for those concessions and they are already close. This becomes more of a personal decision, what is worth what to you, what risk tolerances you have, what your portfolio looks like, where you have enough or too much coverage and where you are thin. I have good coverage in AAPL so my bar is higher to add more.
Price is a component and a very important one, but the market is no longer about discounting value, it's about perceptions and as Cramer said (and this is where Cramer really has some value as he was speaking off the cuff, unscripted and honestly which is why the video is so hard to find now), "Never do anything that is remotely close to the truth", he added that what they do with price is there to create a "New Fiction". I have been saying, "Price is misleading" for many years based on my experience, but Cramer really confirmed this from an operational standpoint.
As for what is going on with AAPL today-forget price, everyone is aware of that and it becomes the most useless piece of information at this point, it looks like the very things I described last week, broad de-leveraging, selling of assets to reduce long exposure, raising cash at the best levels to meet redemptions that will come in when price levels are significantly worse. Remember, only 11% of hedge funds are even equaling the SPX or beating it, that's a massive wave of redemptions and AAPL is the top holding.
The 1 min chart has been negative all day, never confirmed, but is also pretty stationary so the ideas we talked about earlier today are still very much viable.
As we move to longer timeframes, the amount of institutional activity is represented by those longer timeframes. If the 1 min chart made a huge move down, but the 15 min chart was stationary, that would tell me there's likely some set up going on in AAPL, but the real institutional selling hadn't begun. A 15 min chart that really moves is telling me that institutional activity is heavy.
The 2 min chart is hitting new lows, it's still relatively short, but it shows what is going on just beyond the shortest timefame and it's not good, this alone doesn't give us high probabilities, but lets keep looking.
3 min chart nose-diving and making new leading negative lows today alone, this is making a stronger case.
5 min chart, notice where exactly the 5 min chart changes character dramatically, right at the century mark of $600, a psychological level.
The 15 min chart leading to a new low today alone.
30 min chart with a lot of movement for 1 day, again the change in character in 3C i at another psychological level of $650, this is hard-wired human psychology, go to any store and see if the price tag has ".00" after the dollar amount or ".99", retail sellers understood this a long time ago.
Even a 60 min chart hitting a new 1 day low?
Massive action right below the calm surface of AAPL.
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