Tuesday, August 14, 2012

AAPL Update

Here's an AAPL update, but don't forget the past data that is not reflected in this post such as the expected move yesterday above the bull triangle and why that is important to a reversal and the parabolic move this morning, not only in AAPL, but GOOG as well which is still racking up the green on the positions entered today, puts are up almost 14% in a few hours.

Here are the charts for AAPL...
 There were stops tripped, the volume doesn't look hug to the right, but any changes in volume however subtle, if they change the character of trade, they are important; this is where so many traders go wrong when they run volume scans looking for 10x surges thinking it's institutional money accumulating or distributing. As long time members know, by the time we see volume spikes like that, smart money has long ago entered, exited or shorted the position-THEY DO NOT LAY THEIR CARD ON THE TABLE UNLESS THEY WANT YOU TO SEE THEM.

Here we have former resistance, it became support on a consolidation, AAPL ran up, it held as support at least 4 times and as usual, traders placed stops right at the EXACT level where anyone can see, but even easier, guess that they are there.

 Here's the same level, just a close up of the break below support and stops triggered, but that's not the only stop system traders use...

 This is from the old days when day trading ruled, a 50 bar moving average on a 5 min chart as a stop, unreal they still use this. The volume and candlestick created on this move are short term/intraday bullish at least for a reversal (there is not target for the reversal, it can last 10 mins or days-it's just a reversal signal) and this concept works on ALL timeframes. 

 AAPL 1 min chart is the fastest so I wanted to see if there was accumulation at that candlestick reversal above, in yellow you can see there is not, the overall leading divergence is impressive compared to the size of the divergence that turned AAPL at its highs today.

 Here's the accumulation from Friday for the move above the triangle we expected yesterday. There's 1 possible relative positive divergence where we are from the recent intraday lows, as yo know these aren't very strong. If anything at all, I would think AAPL at this point is more likely to float directionally with the overall market; I think the cycle in AAPL is over.


 The 3 min chart leading negative from a relative negative divergence first and no sign of a positive divergence at the yellow box.

Actually I see as I'm writing this, it no longer matters as AAPL just made a new lower low.

The 5 min intraday, you may recall what the 5 min trend looked like, straight down.

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