Tuesday, August 14, 2012

ES Update

As mentioned just a bit ago, the small intraday divergence that tried to form, but was most likely just holding a consolidation together has completely failed. Don't underestimate what it means to lose support from Energy, Financials and Tech, each took their turn moving the market and getting it in to position, but none saw ANY improvement, no confirmation even.

As another tool you can use, the TICK chart is useful, it showed a problem before price did and it is especially useful if you draw trendlines around it and wait for a break of those trends, they often precede reversals.



 Here's the initial 1 min ES positive divergence, as mentioned sometimes the presence of this support is used to keep a market sideways and without it, the market would otherwise fall, who knows why some extra time may have been needed, possibly to wrap up some positioning. It may not seem like much, but as I have told you, it happens on EVERY timeframe and we see it about 80% of the time just before a reversal, at the vertical red arrow ES makes a 5+ min move above a trading range that had been in place for several hours. It's the little things, it's the things the crowd missed that often count the most.

ES and its VWAP, selling at the top of the standard deviation channel is ideal, selling at VWAP is standard and the way institutional order fills are measured. A move below the standard deviation of VWAP is extreme, especially in ES.

The NYSE TICK has hit lower than -1300.


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