Tuesday, August 14, 2012

GLD Follow Up

Yesterday GLD seemed a little overdone without some type of correction, whether it be intraday or something longer. I still expect more downside, but have a very low threshold for corrections with option positions, I'd rather move out for the correction and re-position after it seems to have run its course, for that reason I took 1/2 off the table in GLD and may take the other half in the options model portfolio if either a stop is hit or 3C looks like a correction of decent magnitude is forming.

 Because of the market's volatility (recall I showed you a portion of SPY recent history and no trend was visible until you saw the entire chart-because volatility is so high we get these large gaps up and down within a trend-not good for options) I prefer a more guerilla method of hot and run trades with options, still for 2 days a 21+% return isn't bad with over a month left on the contract.

 GLD's gap down with a lot more stops being hit, market markers or in this case as it is NYSE, specialists absorb a lot of these orders at market so every once in a while they need to run an issue like this up to dump that inventory.

 If this short term trend stop is hit I may reconsider GLD's short term trend, this is too wide though for a position stop, at least for options.

I'm looking at a 15 min Trend Channel stop right now which will continue to lock in gains, if this is hit or 3C shows something strong, I'll close the other half of the September $160 Puts from last Friday.

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