AAPL Update

Here you go, AAPL looks like it's going to be on good behavior for a short time, hopefully long enough to make opening the second half of Friday's Put position worthwhile, if I don't get the price concession I'm looking for I'll forgo the rest of the trade, I have enough coverage in AAPL.

For over a week I've been telling you that 89% of hedge funds are under-performing the SPX, this is bad and it means starting next month and through the end of the year, they'll be hit hard with redemptions, meaning giving client money back, but they need to sell assets to give client money back. If you were in their shoes and as is the case, AAPL was your biggest holding (it is the largest hedge fund holding) and you had a decent profit there now, but didn't expect to have the same in a week or month from now, what would you do?

This is why I said there's a small open door in AAPL right now that is and will be shutting quickly, the crowd can't all get out at once without doing major downside price damage, I expect we will see some of that before this is over if we aren't already.

Here's the AAPL update showing the probabilities of near term strength today as mentioned about the market earlier, going in to a big weak spot. In fact, it looks like it has already started, that's why I posted the last update without the charts so you'd be prepared.

 AAPL 1 min positiv divergence from late yesterday in to today, the price dip allows the market makers to accumulate some shares to put in a floor of support for AAPL to bounce off, then the market makers filling large orders will likely try to sell as much as they can in to price strength.

 The 1 min trend looks similar to the 2 min trend, it is leading negative with a slight relative positive since yesterday afternoon in to this morning, this is like a little sunny break in the middle of a massive storm. For those of you familiar with hurricanes, you might call it the eye of the storm, nice and sunny, but you know it won't last long.

 The 3 min chart is barely worth mentioning as far as the positive divergence, it's barely there.

 The 5 min is leading negative, if you watch the areas where 3C gets even uglier you will see they are right at breakout areas where retail is buying, they don't see what we see, they see price moving up and "$" signs, that's why volatility or fear has been so low, it's been replaces with greed, but he who laughs last...

 The 15 min chart shows no signs of anything remotely positive, this is a small divergence, short lived, this is where the probabilities are, right here on a 15 min leading negative divergence.

Remember a long time ago I said AAPL has one large accumulation area and don't expect to see anymore, those shares accumulated will be sold in to higher prices until they are done with them and then they'll short AAPL and down she goes, there was the large accumulation area to the left, there wasn't another since, look at the 30 min 3C chart's massive change in character as AAPL broke $650, that's a huge leading negative divergence formed very fat, that only happens when there's a lot of institutional activity.

I'll remain patient, see if the trade comes to me on my terms which means prices above the $680 area, if that happens I'll add to the second half of the intended position started Friday, if not, I'll sit with what I have.

If you have no coverage in AAPL and are interested in short coverage, today will likely be as good a day as any, I'd still wait and be patient, I'll keep you updated.