Tuesday, August 28, 2012

GLD charts

This is why I put the two previous posts out without charts, time...
 The breakout, look at the volume also on the breakout. Technicians have it all wrong with volume and smart money movements and most of you have seen it enough that you know it's true. Technical traders run volume scans looking for surges in real time all day thinking that a surge in volume is smart money buying, WRONG! Smart money was in long before the stock ever moved, long before volume ever moved, if anything, in this situation, they use that volume/demand to sell in to.



 Now if I can't make this resistance zone breakout and the change in 3C from neutral / positive or in line to a horrible negative divergence clear, then I need to go back to the drawing boards and figure out how to show you this stuff so it's obvious to your own eyes. There are so many charts in so many timeframes doing the same thing at the exact same place, it's pretty hard to say this is just chance. Note the change in character on the 1 min chart's trend as price breaks out above resistance which is a zone to about $158.

 Intraday 1 min 3C and price did what they should have, but...

 The 2 min chart shows a clear positive divergence intraday, it's not huge, but maybe enough to break above recent resistance where I would consider adding to GLD short/put positions.

 The 2 min trend does the same thing on the breakout, this should tell you how that surge in volume was being used by smart money.

 The 3 min chart does not show an intraday positive divergence, my guess is that it just isn't that strong. 2 min is enough to move GLD, once it crosses resistance, retail buyers take care of the rest, but this doesn't look like smart money is getting long GLD at all, maybe just setting it up for a final bull trap (there appears to be one on the daily, but a reversal starts on an intraday chart and we see the head fakes on those timeframes as well.)

 The 5 min chart with a positive divergence at resistance, a break above resistance and what happens to 3C again, the 4th chart in a row now, every timeframe thus far.

 The 15 min chart seems to be showing increased activity, these leading divergences are the strongest and this is an important timeframe where it illustrates big movement, we see these toward the end, so it looks like there's increased activity, maybe a little panic to move out before the window of opportunity shuts.

The same on a 30 min chart, the same thing at resistance (keep in mind these are not as fast so there's some lag).

 Look at the longer trend of the 30 min chart, at a new high for the chart, nearly at a new low for 3C.

The 60 min chart gave us an awesome long signal in a day on 5/31 and the next day lmost a 6% move up in GLD to the far left, that was sold in to, GLD fell, another smaller positive, but look at price now and then and look at the relative position, this suggests much less money in GLD now.

I'll still be looking for that price concession.

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