Tuesday, August 28, 2012

What I'm Looking For

Yesterday was flat, the strength needed to crack the 5 min charts never materialized, I'm looking for some early price strength, in to that price strength those 5 min charts should crack across the board, still making shorting in to strength the scenario with the highest probability outcome.

Here are some example charts of why I'm looking for this, remember the longer term the chart, the longer term the trend it effects and the stronger the signal, short term charts are for near term trends and are not very strong.

For instance, if we had a 1 min and 5 min negative, I would expect the near term to be negative, the longer term (days) to be negative, if the 15 min chart and longer were also negative, I'd expect the larger picture to be negative, if the 60 min were positive, I'd basically expect a leg down, building in to strength for the next more powerful leg up.

Here's what we have in different asset classes...

 QQQ 1 min suggests some near term price strength, it doesn't have strong backing, but it should be able to lift.

 The same with the IWM, we didn't get much of anything yesterday.

 TLT confirms with some  near term 1 min price weakness as it trades opposite the market.

 However, the 5 min averages have already started cracking, like the SPY here, they don't ned much more to fall completely apart, but a little price strength will help that along.

 TLT longer term saw an amazing leading positive 60 min move, this is a huge move for a 60 min chart, I suspect any price weakness in TLT will be aggressively accumulated. Remember, TLT trades opposite the market.

 VXX near term 1 min, also trades opposite the market is about in line, it can see some weakness from here very near term, maybe this a.m., maybe the first half of the day, we'll have to watch developments.

 However the 5 min chart saw some VERY strong positive divergences, volatility continues to be accumulated, that means the market is getting ready for a fear phase.

This is really not any different than what we expected as of Friday, just yesterday the market didn't do a whole lot.

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