Tuesday, September 25, 2012

BIDU Update

BIDU has given good signals for some nice trades thus far, it is looking more and more like a long candidate, at least for a swing move.

With the market so bifurcated it becomes much more difficult to time an entry, instead of the typical "Rising tide lifts all boats" that helps us time entries, the rising tide either isn't lifting all boats or isn't lifting them at the same time or rate. This has been a feature of the market since QE3 was announced. We've had good success with phasing in to BIDU in the past, I see no reason not to consider a similar tactic if you are interested in the position.

 BIDU original core short positions, the first was at the $150 area and phased in to in 3 parts, that was held and after a bounce we added at $134, both positions were recently covered on September 18th.

 Here's about where they were closed.

 The 60 min chart has worked well, the first position was on a head fake breakout from a large triangle, the second after a counter-trend rally and a head fake breakout above a clear resistance level, there were some positive divergences that caused me to close BIDU. Since it has developed in to a decent looking base.

 30 min chart shows the last short entry and the positive divergence near the lows as well as a recent leading positive divergence on a 2 day pullback.

 Near term I can't say this 10 min chart is relative negative as 3C hasn't turned down, but there's a decent positive divergence as I mentioned above as BIDU pulled back.

 The 2 min trend also looks good as far as the trend goes...

The same chart on an intraday basis looks like BIDU wants to pullback a little more and that's why I'd consider phasing in to a position, but again, I wouldn't be swinging for the fences just yet and would remain cautious in position sizing and risk allocation.

I'll keep an eye on BIDU's intraday charts to see when this intraday divergence turns up, that should offer a better/lower risk entry. The Trend Chanel daily stop which may be too wide for some is at $110.00


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