Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Market volatility and volatility

With a move this fast it takes indicators time to catch up, while I feel a bit better about the way the analysis was pointing and this move, I'm also cautious; oversold bounces are the least of my concerns, it's what is the nature of the market after QE3 as I have been stating all along-it's either priced in, it isn't or we have some strange dislocated risk on/off move.

In any case, I'll be looking carefully at the market after the close for any hints.

As for Volatility instruments, I have long been saying that it appears someone has been accumulating volatility, as mentioned this week even as the VIX was close to 5 year lows, the risk premium on the VIX told another story, one that traders were more nervous about the market than the VIX reflected.

As for the volatility instruments such as VXX/VXY, here's a look at them.

UVXY
 15 min

 10 min

 1 min

VXX
 4 hour!

 60 min

 10 min

 3 min

2 min

As you can see, many of the divergences are hitting new leading positive highs.

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