Tuesday, September 25, 2012

USO Update

We were expecting a gap to be filled, it was filled. If you are interested in USO long, it's in the area in which I think I'd consider starting to build a position. I'd expect some more choppy lateral movement in the area before it can move much higher, it needs some time as "V" reversals aren't very common. However it is very close to a stop level, reducing risk on the position, which I would still consider speculative until the market's plans become clearer.

 The 30 min chart reveals the trend without all of the noise, you can see where it went negative and where it's gone positive, considering the timeframe, I think the probabilities long USO are worthy of consideration.

 The 1 min chart went (as usual) from a relative negative divergence to a leading negative divergence before USO really cracked and filled the gap. There are some 1 min hints of positive intraday activity coming back in to play, but not quite there. However the price area is pretty low risk in my opinion.

 2 min chart right now looks better, it may even lead as it has already started a small leading divergence.

 The 3 min chart is where I'd want to see a positive divergence before I filled out a position, but as mentioned, the price level makes USO attractive here for perhaps a phased in entry (long).

There's not much damage to the positive 5 min chart, the yellow gap is filled and a stop can be placed below the recent lows, although I would give it some room as everyone will place their stops right at the lows which makes for a nice fishing expedition for stops.

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