Tuesday, September 25, 2012

S&P and NASDAQ Mini Futures

The Futures timeframes are more influential, for example a 1 min ES is more influential than a 1 min SPY, they also are a bit more consistent so far. I'd guess we are near the intraday lows based on the 1 min chart, based on the 5 min charts there are certainly some questions that aren't visible on the market averages.

 ES-SPX futures 1 min have a positive divergence here at the intraday lows, I'd guess that this will hold, although if support becomes too obvious there's always the chance they run the stops.

 The 5 min chart shows a leading positive divergence at the lows in the middle of the chart, prices moved up and as they did, 3C went negative implying they were sold in to. The question remains whether they were sold in to to de-leverage (sell/sell short positions) in to any strength or whether they were purposefully brought back down to a level in which a larger round of accumulation could occur. This is exceptionally important as until today there was no sign of the kind of large accumulation that we see on say the USO 30 min chart.

 NASDAQ/NQ 1 min was very positive yesterday and today in to the highs, very negative, sold in to, again the question is the same.

The 5 min chart, like the ES/SPX futures is leading positive (accumulation) at the lows in the middle of the chart, the run up from there was distributed and it looks pretty serious, but again, is it so they can build a larger position or are they just selling any strength.

The market has been trending down since the 14th, that's a long time with no upside correction.

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