AAPL Update

Yesterday I posted this on what looks like a complex H&S top in AAPL. If we still consider AAPL a bellwether for the market, than the short and longer term thoughts about AAPL and the market are pretty close.

Here are the charts, but make sure to see yesterday's post if you don't recall it.

 This price pattern was what yesterday's post was pretty much all about and the reaction from it. The price pattern looks like a complex Head and Shoulders top, meaning instead of 1 head and 2 shoulders, it appears to have at least 2 if not 3 left shoulders and given the pattern's affinity for symmetry, probabilities are for at least 1 more right shoulder, maybe 2 so that would likely put AAPL somewhere around the $680 level as the H&S pattern is slanting upward. A 3rd shoulder would likely be lower.

Today AAPL broke below the neck line which is where Technical Analysis says you should short a stock like AAPL, so why did I just close it? As we have seen time and time again, the technical retail traders who jump in short on such an obvious set up seem to be run out of their positions probably 85% of the time on a volatility shakeout, this is absolutely my least favorite place to short, but it often leads to excellent areas to short on a volatility shakeout. If I shorted AAPL at $700 which I would have done had the position not already been filled out, then I'd probably only close half and ride out the rest and re-establish the other half at better prices if available.

 Like the market averages, AAPL's 4 hour chart is leading negative and this after the 13th.

 The 60 min chart is leading negative a well and this after the 13th.

 30 min chart is leading negative, but within that there is an inline component at the lows for AAPL.

 The 5 min chart shows a relative positive divergence after AAPL broke below the neckline today.

 While I wouldn't go buying AAPL long based on this 1 min chart, it is positive as AAPL moves lower under the H&S neckline.

Here's a closer view of the break down, as you can see the longer term charts are pretty clear, the shorter term charts aren't as positive as I'd think they might be, but this break is new. I'm making most of the determinations on short term trade based mostly on market behavior and how it is used against technical traders.

All of that being said, AAPL still has a lot of weight on the NASDAQ 100 so it's still probably a decent model bellwether for the market.