Market Update

I'm already hearing from our members who were/are long FB which is a trade we first recognized back in August as most probably going to put in a larger base for a larger move, I still think over the weeks and months to come we will see more upside in FB, but I want to verify that with the charts.

So far one of the best gains I've heard is a member with December calls selling them this morning at a +300% profit.

As for the market, today is an F_O_M_C policy announcement day, it has been 12:15 pm EDT the last few times with a press conference at 2:15, I'm showing the policy statement at 2:15 today according to Bloomberg, I don't see anything about a press conference, however the F_E_D according to the minutes from the last meeting was fooling around with ideas to "better communicate" F_E_D policy which would be market or macro-economic based rather than timetable based as it has been. It would seem to me that approach would only cause more uncertainty, nothing is as certain as the F_E_D saying, "ZIRP will stay in place until 2015", economic data changing that forecast as it comes out could move a date like that all over the map, this is why I suspect we have seen a flight from big name high fliers like AAPL and a move toward the cheaper, beaten up stocks that have already taken their lumps.

In any case, it's pretty normal for the market to be range bound or in a holding pattern in front of the policy statement.

AS ALWAYS, I remind you to beware the F_E_D "knee jerk" reaction that we almost always see, it's almost always wrong. Here's the last one...

The knee jerk here was a quick move up on heavy volume, it looked very impressive, then things took a different course. Just be aware not to panic on the initial reaction, it takes some time for the market to settle in around F_E_D policy/statements.

Finally the market update, yesterday we had many different indications of a risk on market today from leading indicators, daily closing candles, FX, volatility indices,  market divergences, and more. It's strange to see that on a F_O_M_C day, but we have seen leaked policy before-in fact about 2 hours before it was due out and we moved in the opposite direction of the market before the policy statement, following 3C rather than price and were rewarded for it. I'll keep an eye out.

Opening indications look like a halt/holding pattern, but these early hours are the most deceptive price action of the day...

DIA

 2 min was negative in the open, not by much, but enough.

 The faster 1 min is showing improvement starting to kick in.

 Of course the longer term 10 min+ charts have put together a nice divergence this week so far.

QQQ

 This is one that had a bullish reversal candle yesterday on volume, a star reversal.

 The range in the QQQ is now much clearer than it was the first day which is what I was trying to explain and prepare you for, this is what we want to see.

 1 min opening was negative

 2 min chart is already showing improvement, by the time I post this we may see that kick in.

 We have a leading positive divergence all the way out to a 30 min chart here so overall it has been a good week for the action we were looking for as of late Friday.

SPY

 Here's another bullish daily closing candle yesterday with a Hammer on volume.

 The SPY range is looser, but it's there.

 The open 1 min chart was negative

 So was the 3 min, but overall there's a leading positive in the near term so I suspect that will kick in soon as well to some extent considering it's a F_E_D day.

ES 1 min

 Here at the green arrows are the European and US opening, there was a 1 min negative divergence on the US open and a positive on the European opening.

NASDAQ Futures

These are in a leading positive divergence.