It's too early to see what's going on with underlying trade in FB and quite frankly there's just too much chaos to come out of it with any conclusions as the volume already this morning is nearly yesterday's entire day.
However from our FB expectations, we can still work out a little of what we expect to come.
We know there's another lock-up period ending (something unique to IPO's) and I suspected we'd see much higher prices before that lock-up period ended as MS and GS would like to retain some of their IPO business in the future and the way FB is managed for the insiders as lock up comes and goes will determine how much IPO future business they get.
Everything else is on the charts.
Today's daily chart shows FB right at a Stage 2 breakout, meaning this should lead us to stage 2 mark-up now that we have left the stage 1 base. It may take several days or even weeks of consolidating these gains before we see a real trend, but I suspect we will see such a trend at least in to the end of the lock-up period. While I think taking some 1 day double digit gains in a stock as large as FB makes sense as you can probably add the shares back at a lower price in the days ahead, I also recognize that this is THE BASE we have been so patient with and have believed in, now that stage 2 is at the door step, I would want to let this winner run. So any shares sold in to this pop, I would try to replace at lower prices which shouldn't be too hard.
Remember the FB divergence, this is what kept us in the trade, this is what told us this was a base and today it has proven it with a breakout of that base. I look forward to seeing what 3C looks like as trade settles in.
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