MCP-Add or not

That's the question I've received in several emails today as MCP is up +3.33%. Again, my take on MCP is that it is a longer term trade, not as long as FB and certainly not UNG, but a position that takes some patience, adding in the right areas.

For me, I don't like to chase anything, there's no advantage in pricing, more importantly there's a disadvantage in risk management. I already have been building a position in MCP that's already in the green so I don't have to make this choice and as stated above, my preference is to be patient and add at the right spots, However if I HAD TO DECIDE RIGHT NOW, I'd probably say the probabilities look better for MCP to see some additional gains in the days ahead from here, I'd still prefer to wait for the pullback though in case I wasn't clear enough already.

 Here's a false breakout in MCP, the second candle gave it away a bit with the longer upper wick as higher prices were rejected.

 I'd have preferred if MCP continued to consolidate laterally before making a move higher, it still may do so.

 Today's price pattern is biased toward an upside breakout, but we see these manipulated all the time with a downside shakeout first.

 I don't like the 1 min chart much in this triangle.

 The 2 min chart looks the same, but it does have a recent positive divergence building as the apex of the triangle is reached (time to make a move).

 The 3 min chart overall is in good leading positive position.

 The 5 min chart shows the same leading positive divergence, I do like the looks of that.

The 15 min chart is leading positive here, so this is why I am biased toward the long side in near term trade, I'd still rather a pullback with the positives continuing.

I won't be adding to MCP here even though I have room, I'll be patient with it. I may be wrong not to add here, but when you average out hundreds of decisions like this that have to be made, this is where you see portfolio performance or attrition.