Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Market Update

I wouldn't normally put two market updates so close, but I'll show you why.

 The 1 min intraday DIA is in a small leading negative divergence, thus the reason for the earlier update, this alone isn't a very big deal, but if it continues to develop, it could change the intraday trend and further out if it kept going, could change the lateral trend, but 1 bridge at a time. So far this is enough to consolidate or pullback the DIA intraday, it seems to be consolidating.

 The 5 min chart was in line and has a weaker relative negative divergence, if there's more deterioration on the shorter charts, it will eventually make it here.

 SPY 1 min in a leading negative divergence,  which has caused lateral consolidation so far, but again it could migrate to longer term charts and have larger implications than just a consolidation.

 The 3 min SPY chart was in line, it's seeing a little  divergence along the lines of consolidation, it just needs to be watched for further deterioration, for now I'd just say consolidation.

 The QQQ has a leading negative 1 min also, even though it will get support from AAPL and the rest of the market should draft off that.

 The 2 min chart isn't horrible, but it is a relative negative divergence.

The question comes to this 10 min chart which is currently in line, if the negative divergences on the shorter timeframes grow deeper, it will start to migrate through the longer timeframes and potentially move this back down. As of now it's something to keep an eye on, I still think AAPL will support the market near term, but this is what we are dealing with in this chop, AAPL either lifts us out or the market makes a decision one way or the other in the near term.

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