In to the open

The overnight session in the ES (SPX e-mini Futures) was like watching grass grow, I don't think it moved up or down more than 4 points either way and ended opening at 9:30 only 2 points above yesterday's 4 pm close.

There were several data points from Europe, the main one I'm interested is the Markit Composite PMI for Euro-zone manufacturing/services, it came down from 46.3 to 46.1 (in contraction and deteriorating).  Germany came in at 49.7 on expectations of 50.6, the lowest print since March 2006, France at 45.0, down from 46.1, and below consensus of an unchanged print, Spain, UK and Sweden all missed.

It seems the recent chop, that looks like real undecided chop as signals are messy, is likely a holding pattern in front of the ECB policy meeting tomorrow as well as debt issuance from Spain and France, the market will want to see how that goes.

Here's what ES looked like going in to the US open.

 Pretty sloppy with a weak relative negative divergence, there seems to be little real conviction.

A look at the QQQ

 1 min negative on the open...

 The 2 min retains some strength and positive posture from AAPL's late day move yesterday.

 With all of this chop, I'd expect a clearer trend on the 15 min chart, but again, although slightly positive, it's not showing much conviction.

 AAPL has a better looking 15 min chart and you know why I think that is...

I think it will move up to make at least a second shoulder as it started to yesterday, the QQQ following and thus the market drafting it.

However a quick look at the SPY...

 The 1 min chart should show some trend through this chop, other than a few divergences at extremes in the range, there's nothing, very strange for a market that has very clear policy guidance going forward.

 The 15 min chart is similar to the QQQ, which is at least one decent confirmation, but still just barely better than in line.

The larger trend on the 4 hour is the cleanest, it is still ugly, that doesn't mean we won't bounce and as you know I think we will, but this is a very torn market as we have been seeing with the bifurcation among stocks. That bifurcation would explain to some degree the lack of clear trends in the 3C charts recently, you have some socks being bought, some sold, it's not the usual directional market we've been use to.

I'm going to look at industry groups closer today, updates are coming as they develop.