Thursday, November 15, 2012

AAPL Update

If you are wondering why so many AAPL updates, it's not only because of the phased entry, but the market isn't going anywhere without AAPL as AAPL accounts for nearly 20% of the NASDAQ 100's weighting.

It looks like that last add to area was a good one, here are the charts, the only one that hasn't made it to the "Screaming position" or new higher screaming position is the 30 min which of course is slower to move, it can only move up 1 tick every 30 minutes so it takes a bit more time, but it has turned up which was not the case earlier. The other charts did what I hoped for.

 This is a 5 min chart, AAPL looks like it's transitioning. For more conservative traders who might be interested in a long AAPL position (which is for a bounce/shakeout move only, not because of  bullish analysis), you might consider the $532-$534 area, you'll have to watch volume and see if it looks like shorts are covering on the break above that level and whether longs are coming in. AAPL inside the triangle or above its apex would be another area, again watch for volume, it's likely large volume wouldn't show up until AAPL is above its triangle's apex around $543 or above the upper resistance point of the wide side of the triangle, around $554-$555.

There should still be plenty of upside in a shakeout move, I just prefer using head fake moves to get a better entry and lower risk.

 The 2 min did as I hoped and hit a new leading high in to this morning's draw down.

 The 3 min did the same, rising in to the decline which is exactly what we look for, especially on a suspected head fake move-this lifts the probabilities significantly.


 The 30 min is already making new higher highs, it's also close to the level when AAPL was trading at $700 near the top.

While we aren't seeing 30 min. new highs as I explained we can only move 1 Tick per 30 mins on this timeframe, we have at least seen the first step which is to turn up.

The yellow area is the triangle, the red area is the move below it I warned to watch for today as a possible entry.

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