Thursday, November 15, 2012

BIDU Update

The last time I updated BIDU 2 days ago, I didn't quite trust what I saw, there were a few things missing before BIDU would be an initial or add to long on a shakeout move. I want to show you the updated charts.

 Here's a 5 day chart of BIDU, if you had to guess what stage it's in, what would you say? Long term I'd say BIDU is entering stage 4 decline after having completed a stage 3 top.

 The last major trade in BIDU was short on a bullish triangle that was already showing distribution, we waited for the breakout from that triangle and shorted BIDU in the yellow area in partial positions. I believe BIDU was covered around the white box and hedged in June for a counter trend reversal to the upside.

 Here'a a VERY clear range, the break below it and the volume rising like that is not surprising as a lot of stops would have accumulated there as well as short sellers.

 The daily 3C chart in BIDU is horrible and any decent move to the upside, I would consider BIDU an excellent longer term short.

 In the near term however- you can see the negative divergence at the counter trend rally top in July and a positive divergence formed up now, the break below recent support is one of the last things we see before a reversal when we have a positive divergence like this timeframe which is significant.

 On the 5 min chart, it looks like the break below the range was accumulated so this helps to establish the probabilities are high this was a head fake move on the break lower to sucker shorts in and hit long stops.

The 3 min chart also looks like BIDU is near a reversal.


At this point I don't think there's a lot left for BIDU to do before reversing to the upside, in fact I think it is ready and the only thing it needs like many many more stocks in this type of position, is the broader market move higher to change sentiment.

If you like BIDU for a long shakeout move, at this point I'd pay more attention to the broad market updates than anything.


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