The Fulcrum

Usually when we have a major reversal there's something that is acting as a fulcrum, I believe in many cases when obvious cycles are put together (The Aug-Oct 2011 period, the March-May 1 2012 period, the late May early June 2012 period, even the Sept-mid October when this cycle started as the last one ended) there's a catalyst: Earnings, the F_E_D,  an EU meeting or idea to fix the union, sometimes a specific stock like AAPL.

This time it's starting to become clear what the fulcrum is in this cycle, what moves it is a mystery, but I believe it is the $US Dollar. We know the dollar has an inverse relationship and therefore moves with the market or causes the market to move, but this looks like something very specific that will move the dollar down and that appears to be the fulcrum.

Here's what I saw and why I suspect this as I have been hinting at the last couple of days.

 Here's the relationship that normally exists, the SPX in green, the Euro in yellow and the $USD in red, note how the Euro and $USD move opposite each other and the Euro and SPX move together.

 Remember me saying that the Euro isn't a great leading indicator (because it's not a popular carry trade currency), but it's an excellent confirmation indicator, in red you can see areas where the Euro diverged with the SPX and either brought the market down or lifted it up and now we have another one of those divergences, not only in direction, but it's also in a leading position.

 However as the Euro turns up and the market is just starting to follow, the $USD hasn't made a turn down yet, it's lost a little ground, but doesn't show the normal inverse relationship. I think there's a reason, some event that is Dollar negative.

 The Volume in the intraday $USD /UUP has been large intraday and many of the spikes have been at highs.

 Then there's the 3C negative divergences, this a 5 min leading, but I noticed (as I also remarked that we have seen some very positive signals Tuesday and Wednesday), here in the $USD the negative downside picked up at the same time, the 13, 14th (the 2 days I mentioned some strong positive signs) and today the 15th which we have obviously seen strong positive signs.

 Here's a leading negative on a 10 min chart of the $USD.

 And a 15 min chart leading negative, but specifically at the 3 days I've mentioned so many times yesterday; also right at the $USD gap up high.

 On a 30 min chart, we had not seen very long divergences, the same 3 days are leading negative

The Euro/FXE

 2 min intraday leading strongly.

 15 min, note where it went negative, at the end of the last cycle -October 18th, and where it has gone positive.

Also the 60 min chart negative to October 18, then leading positive.

I'm almost sure there's something coming that is the catalyst for the market that has a lot to do with the $USD.