Wednesday, November 14, 2012

FOMC Minutes

Here's what the market update looks like as of now, I simply used the longest chart for each average.

These don't represent the trend (which matters with some of the longer term charts), in other words, these are presented as intraday only.

 DIA 2 min is about the best, cleanest DIA chart.

 The IWM amazingly hit the 10 min on intraday movement only, very interesting.


 QQQ at 5 min

SPY at 3 min

As for the FOMC minutes, I haven't had a chance to read them for myself, from what I gather:

-Generally happy with the effects of bond buying on Financial, Housing and Autos.

-Divided over whether to continue bond buying next year

-The $40bn of buying MBS should lower long term rates, should support pending and recovery in the housing market.

-Most agreed Additional Asset Purchases would be warranted after the end of TWIST next year.

-Not enough improvement in the economy to remove any extraordinary support

-Said their (BOND BUYING-not MBS?) would continue until labor markets showed improvement

-ZIRP interest rates through mid-2015

-Raised near term GDP projections/ Left inflation expectations alone

-Moderate improvement in labor, economy, housing may have turned a corner, etc

-More on the communication strategy, what interest rate would trigger what policy, what unemployment rate would trigger action, etc. Still looking for  new way to communicate policy expectations, *THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I SAID ON SEPT. 13TH THAT THE MARKET DID NOT LIKE, IT'S TOO UNCERTAIN VS A GIVEN DATE.

Since the market dropped from the 2 p.m. release, I still think this is the bug-a-boo for the markets despite the possibility of more bond buying to replace TWIST!

The question now becomes whether the possibility of more QE/printing is more valued to the market than the uncertainty of their new communication strategy they are trying to develop.

***Remember with ANYTHING FED related, the first reaction or knee jerk is almost ALWAYS WRONG. Just look at the reaction on Sept. 13 and 14th and the reaction since!

No comments: