Wednesday, November 14, 2012

TNA Vs. IWM

TNA is a Small Cap 3x leveraged long ETF, it is kind of similar to the IWM/R2k in a sense. If I'm looking for coverage and I have a long like DIA, I might pick a long like TNA as it will give me the small cap exposure (the DIA is the large cap exposure), but it's not the IWM which is more likely to trade closer to the DIA whereas small cap/ large cap will likely see more rotation. There's no point in being redundant in your selection.

In any case, there are leveraged ETFs for the IWM like UWM or URTY for 3x leverage. Luckily a member asked about TNA (I say luckily because I didn't see it today and wouldn't have otherwise).

While I'd hope the IWM and UWM/URTY would give the same signals for confirmation, I wouldn't necessarily expect TNA to look as similar as it does.

 The 10 min IWM, which is a good timeframe because if it were seeing heavy negative underlying action with price, the 3C indication could have easily moved down by noon time today to reflect that, it's not so long that it takes days to move, but not so short that the divergence is only short term.

In addition, the 17/18th of October is seen as the reversal area-which is kind of where I consider this cycle to start and we have seen the same date in just about every risk asset and finally the leading positive divergence is hitting a new high, well above anything else on the chart.

Now, TNA...
Nearly a spitting image of the IWM right down to the leading positive divergence at a new high.

When I see a chart like this or even better, a bunch of charts like this, my experience is not to expect an oversold bounce or a week or so of rally, there's usually a move coming that I often underestimate how powerful it will be and when it is near its finish, most traders feel very different about the market and I have to work hard to make the case that the move is over, it's time to sell and short.

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