Wednesday, November 14, 2012

USO -This is going to be one to watch

According to Stratfor,  Israel targeted multiple senior Hamas leaders. I really have to wonder whether this is about Hamas or something larger and Hamas is "Battle-Field Prep" or what is known as prepping the battlefield.

When you are engaged in battlefield prep you are mainly targeting command and control. I don't want to speculate too much, but one has to wonder if this is in preparation for a wider campaign or it's a big-time bluff to make certain leaders believe that Israel is getting ready to take action.


In any case, lets take a look at USO, it did react favorably initially to the strike, but there were also signs in place before today that USO should be seeing some upside.

 This is USO (15 min) since going negative September 13/14th (QE3 announcement) and heading down since. Recently there was a relative positive divergence that halted the downside momentum followed by a leading positive divergence at the same time the suspected head fake move on the 7th began.

 A closer look as if this was the same timeframe and zoom factor that looks at this entire cycle since we first called downside on the 17th/18th of October, then the lateral trend just before the 22nd (on a Sunday night I believe) and the suspected head fake area in yellow with a leading positive divergence, I probably don't have to point out how much it resembles several market averages.

 The 5 min chart also gives the exact same signals

 Near term on the 3 min chart there are positive divergences EXACTLY at the lows and only slight negative divergences sending USO to those lows. It looks to me like USO was going to pop up one way or the other today and on a longer term basis.

 The even tighter 1 min chart positive at the 12 pm low yesterday, then in line, a negative divergence off the open like the rest of the market and we have the move from the event in Israel, Right now it's difficult to say if USO is leading positive or in line, it's not very negative here.

 Crude Futures overnight were perfectly in line  past the European open...

They remained in line with price or price trend confirmation and then put in a decently sized positive divergence at 9 a.m., you can see here too we also have what is more clearly this time a positive position in 3C.

FB next...

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