Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Pre-Market

Yesterday we were to believe that S&P and other index futures had fallen hard overnight because of a squabble between Juncker of the EU and Lagarde of the IMF over the timetable for Greece to reach 120% debt to GDP, the two had a disagreement of 2 years which is out at least 8  if not 10 years from now, but somehow that knocked the futures down badly overnight.

You saw for yourself in premarket the positive divergence in the S&P futures and from the opening New York Bell until about 11 a.m., the SPX futures gained nearly 20 points!

Today European Industrial Production fell off the map with the entire continent missing and several of the PIIGS nations seeing a double digit decline. In addition, it looks like about a quarter of the continent is on strike today protesting austerity measures, yet the SPX and NASDAQ futures (among others) are up overnight.

I'll just leave it at that.

Pre-market futures did see a little hiccup as US Retail Sales came in with a bad miss right before the holiday shopping season (yes, I know about hurricane Sandy which can be spun both ways).
Released On 11/14/2012 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change1.1 %-0.1 %-0.4 % to 0.3 %-0.3 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change1.1 %0.2 %-0.4 % to 0.6 %0.0 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change0.9 %0.2 %-0.2 % to 0.5 %-0.3 %

At the same time PPI shows some deflationary pressures at work

Released On 11/14/2012 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI - M/M change1.1 %0.2 %-0.2 % to 0.4 %-0.2 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change0.0 %0.2 %-0.1 % to 0.2 %-0.2 %

Futures look like this as of about 9:15...



 ES was working on a nice positive divergence pre-market until the Eco-data came out, it's still in a respectable place.

 NASDAQ futures still have a decent positive divergence in place.

Finally the EUR/USD is higher from yesterday at 4 p.m., doesn't seem to make a lot of sense given activities in Europe, that's because it has nothing to do with them in the short term.

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