Full AAPL Update

I always get a lot of email questions about AAPL so it's easier just to post it, this update will be a bit different as it will address multiple trends in AAPL, the way I would play them and plan on playing them (allowing you to plan and act in advance-so long as nothing significant changes in underlying trade), you may recall the article from earlier in the week about multiple timeframes and the trends they represent?

 Short term 1 min zoomed out shows a leading negative divergence.

 The same chart zoomed in close (for intraday trade) shows a relative positive divergence, even though that is there and is positive intraday from this point, the bias is still negative as the longer trend is leading negative. Think about how that works, the trend has declined because more and more short term money has flowed out, but on an intraday trading basis, someone is buying here to send AAPL up a bit intraday, perhaps they sell in to the price strength-WE never know why when we see the signals, we just see what they are doing which is a lot more than just watching price.

 The next meaningful chart is at 5 or 10 or even 15 minutes with this leading negative divergence suggesting quite  strong move down in AAPL, is this a reversal back to a resumption of the primary downtrend that has begun even since mid-September, right after QE3 was announced? I don't think so.

 Oh, there's that 25 min chart I mentioned above, that's a bad negative divergence, but still on the swing timeframe trend, maybe worse.

 Here's a 30 min chart, it shows the mid September negative divergence, I had been warning about AAPL long before that, but those who bought at $700 didn't take the warnings seriously, oh well, you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.

Note the positive change in character on this longer chart, a leading positive divergence, this is why I think a ugly pullback in AAPL will be a pullback and not a downside reversal.

The main trend or primary that really tells us something about AAPL a year from now or more is leading negative.

So how do you put all of these trends together in to a comprehensive trading plan? Remember, this is a plan, like they say, "Every boxer has a plan until the first punch is thrown", so if we have to adjust to changes or events that's what we'll do, but we can only make decisions bases on what we know right now.

So very short term -a week or so, maybe more I like AAPL short, it's a smaller speculative position, I want to watch for accumulation in to the pullback and when it gets strong, cover all shorts and start buying AAPL for a bigger trend up (resuming the trend up) and that may be a full size long position. When that starts to see distribution, I want a full size short (this may be many months down the road), but that's how to interpret the different timeframe/signals and if yo know how smart money uses shakeouts to move a stock without having to expend  lot of energy, then ll of these trends will make perfect sense.