Friday, November 30, 2012

This may make sense

Especially if there is a weekly options pin, I'm still really surprised the TICK hasn't even sent one spike to the +1000/-1000 level, it's been as boring and flat as it gets in the same range all day at -750/+750 which is flat.

Ok, so we know there's an arbitrage correlation (positive) between the Euro and the overall market, if the Euro was going to fall apart here and there was an attempt to pin weekly options like the SPY/AAPL, etc, then they'd need to kick in some extra support to hold back the weakness that would naturally flow from a dropping Euro/rising USD.

Here's the relationship
 SPY (green) vs Euro (red) on a 5 min chart, note they move together for the most part.

The Euro is in a bit of a dangerous spot...
Here's the triangle in the EUR/USD I mentioned earlier right above the $1.30 mark which is the important level, this isn't a big break, but it is a break below $1.30, at the same time the market sees a positive divergence, it very well could be to support the market as the Euro would be putting downward pressure on it with a break below $1.30.


 The 1 min EUR/USD shows divergences intraday that form a triangle, it is as if the divergences (buying/selling) were done specifically to create that triangle (I wouldn't doubt it if that were the truth), but recently there's a worsening leading negative divergence and soon after a break of $1.30.


 The longer term 5 min chart also shows distribution after the initial pump of the Euro overnight and in to the flag, a perfect spot to sell as the prices would be very steady.

The 15 min chart for the same also shows a trend toward distribution in to higher prices in the FX pair for now any way, this has an effect on the market, a falling Euro pressures the market lower.


Here's the SPY and Euro again today, note when the Euro broke $1.30, that's when the market received some extra support and kept it from following the Euro as it normally does, at least for now.

This all makes a lot of sense if they are specifically trying to protect a weekly options pin that would cause the most number of options buyers to experience a total loss as the writers, (smart money) get to keep the premium.

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