Friday, November 30, 2012

Market Update Charts

This really isn't that strong of an intraday signal, therefore it's the kind I would use to enter a position that I like, there's the overall strategic view (the asset you like) and the tactical view (How and when you are going to enter that asset), both are equally important; if you are correct on the stock, but chase it and get caught at the top, you may have to endure 2 weeks of drawdown and perhaps enough drawdown that it forces a margin call and you have to exit the position with a loss, only to see it do as you expected a day or two later.

We also have a lot of members using 3C and this will help you to understand the indicator, concepts and hopefully how different Wall Street really is from what you hear on T.V. or read in Technical Analysis books which are probably a traders greatest weakness, their inability to think and learn for themselves, rather they are lazy and just look for the newest indicator, the simple explanation to a highly interconnected and complex market.

The charts...(the market may have changed by the time I post this)

*I just uploaded all the charts and the market is changing, this is still a good education and I promise I'll give you the same update I planned before the market started changing.

 I'm not sure what happened with this as I haven't looked since capturing it, but this i a bullish consolidation/continuation triangle, it' the perfect pattern to manipulate because it is so popular. Technical traders expect it to breakout and the trend to continue up, instead we often see an initial breakout, traders buy it and then it reverses trapping the buyers at a loss. This is an important area too because this is the EUR/USD and right above the important $1.30 level.

 You already know the trends of the 1 min charts are leading negative, you already know that the important reversal timeframes like 5, 10 and 15 min are negative, so this is a closer view of the DIA 1 min showing an intraday positive divergence, remember INTRADAY.

 If this were strong, it would show up on the 2 min chart as well, there's no positive divergence on the 2 min chart telling us the intraday move is likely going to be weak.

 ES-S&P futures 1 min leading positive divergence, but...

 The next timeframe the 5 min is leading negative in a big way, again the intraday move can't compete with this and I wouldn't expect much strength from it.

 The IWM is an ETF/Average (Russell 2k) that should lead rallies, here there's no positive divergence at all on a 1 min chart.

 NASDAQ futures 1 min are showing no divergence either.


 The 5 min is very ugly, this is where the probabilities are, down.

 QQQ 1 min with an intraday positive.

 The 2 min has a smaller version, nothing on the 3 min.

 SPY 1 min intraday positive


Only a VERY slight 2 min positive, all in all, a weak intraday positive divergence, not what I would expect to make any significant upside difference.

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