FX Charts

I posted my findings from looking at the 3C charts of the Euro and $USD, in nearly every case the charts between the two confirm each other, that's a lot of confirmation.

 The 1 min Euro chart doesn't have a positive divergence, if it did, I'd say the probabilities are tomorrow morning we see a gap up.


 However on more important charts like this 2 min, there's a nice positive divergence right at a flat range where accumulation/distribution is most often seen. It is for this reason that I believe we will see strength in the Euro develop after the open, I don't know how far beyond it, but it looks like there will be a decent chance for a close higher tomorrow as well.

 The 3 min chart shows the negative divergence sending the Euro lower today, again at the flat range this afternoon we have another positive divergence so again I suspect this will either build in to a stronger divergence which would be even stronger for the market (although I don't think that is necessary) or simply strengthen the Euro, weaken the dollar and help the market to move higher.

 Even at a 5 min chart today in the same area, we have another leading positive divergence, so all indications point to the Euro strengthening at some point after the open tomorrow.

 Here's the longer term 5 min chart from above, it has the negative divergence that we saw in the market averages on the 17th/18th of last month and the flat range and positive divergence from last week.

 On a 10 min Euro chart we have a leading positive divergence, so this looks like it could be a decent move up, like I also said, when Wall St. plans a cycle they usually have a goal in mind and those goals are usually extreme behavior, for example, enough to cause shorts to cover.

Now the $USD, remember this should look and have the exact opposite signals from the Euro for confirmation and a stronger dollar generally means a weaker Euro and market, including commodities like metals and oil.

 The 1 min $USD chart is the only one that doesn't agree with the Euro as it has a leading negative divergence suggesting the dollar open lower tomorrow which would support a higher open )gap up) in the market tomorrow.


 Like the Euro that is positive on the 2 min, the $USD suggests that weakness is  higher probability to develop, either early in the day or as we move through the day.

 Here's a close up of the 2 min chart, note the end of day negative divergence after having seen a positive divergence early this morning sending the $USD higher.

 Confirming the Euro 3 min's positive, the $USD's 3 min is leading negative, again this gives the stock market breathing room to the upside.

 The 3 min trend is also leading negative through last week's range, the opposite of the Euro and market averages.

 $USD 5 min chart is leading negative today as it went higher, this is inline with the Euro findings.

 The 10 min $USD chart has a negative divergence, so again this suggests a decent swing move higher in the market, but it stops right here at 10 min. The market averages and stocks have different areas where they stop, but from 10-30 min is the norm so they all kind of confirm each other, after the move higher, we should expect weakness to develop, that is why we want to short the move higher.

 $USD 15 min shows a positive divergence, this works against the market in the longer term and as far as probabilities go. This again suggests we see a near term strong move to the upside in the market followed by a serious move lower. This is why we set up long positions last week to take advantage of near term strength and why we want to short strength as we start closing longs and switching to short positions or adding to them, the only difference is the long positions are more speculative in size for risk management while the shorts will be core/full size positions.

Confirming the 15 min $USD leading positive divergence above is a leading negative in the Euro on the same time frame, again confirming the longer term probabilities are stacked against the market, the near term probabilities are for a move higher.