PCLN Update

So we're looking at PCLN to see if there's an obvious leak, just to be clear, we've found a lot of leaks and have a good record with them (about 95% correct the 1 quarter I devoted to looking at all earnings), but keep in mind for every 1 leak we found there were hundreds of stocks that didn't appear to show any leaks. As a matter of fact, that earnings season in which I set out to show members that there are leaks in the market, it wasn't to show 3C's accuracy, I believe we found about 20 obvious leaks, so they are not as common as people might think and even if there was a leak, we need to be able to see it and if the stock is moving like the market, there's no way to distinguish a leak from just broad market behavior.

As for PCLN, put earnings aside and I'd say I think PCLN will have a favorable reaction in the near term, I don't see anything that separates PCLN from the rest of the market. A Great example of this would be AMZN, their earnings were so bad they were down over 12% in AH, but the next day AMZN was up 7% as 3C was showing.

What tells me that it's doubtful there's a leak is the fact the 10 min and on charts are not positive (that tends to rule out a positive leak) and the shorter term charts are not negative (that tends to rule out a negative leak), if anything PCLN looks more like the market than anything else and in a few spots it looks a bit better than the market, but there can be reasons for this I will go in to.

 This is the 1 min chart that I mentioned in the last update, I said I wanted to watch it and make sure it doesn't go much more negative or it may be signaling a negative leak, you can see it improved, but this is not unique to PCLN.


 The IWM looks very similar on the same timeframe and improved in the same area, in fact IWM's positive divergence is a real positive as 3C was moving up as prices were moving down, PCLN's move is more in line with price movement and less a positive divergence.

 PCLN 2 min shows a leading negative position in the near term, I'm not crazy about this for more PCLN upside, but it is a 2 min chart.

 In context, the 2 min chart has been very positive over a long period.

 In fact longer than a similar market average, the QQQ. From looking at the PCLN 2 min chart alone, I'd be on the side of PCLN has more upside, but I can't say with any certainty it is earnings related.


 3 min PCLN

 Similar to the 3 min IWM, except again PCLN's divergence is larger. However if this were based on a leak, I doubt it would be that old and I'd think we'd see timeframes above 10 min. positive, which they are not.


5 min PCLN is also a larger divergence, it was a bit negative today, but overall, it still looks like PCLN has more upside, whether this is an AMZN-like situation, or something else, I don't know. For me it's not an earnings trade, but if I were long PCLN right now, I don't see a lot of reason to cut it lose as I would expect more upside in the near future before turning in to a short again as that is where the larger probabilities are, SHORT. Again-if I had to chose now and not touch for 6 months, I'd be short PCLN, beyond that, the near term looks like it has more upside, like the market.