Friday, December 7, 2012

AAPL Update

OK, everyone loves trading AAPL, it's better than in the past, everyone just loved buying AAPL.
NEVER FALL IN LOVE WITH A STOCK, they'll only break your heart.

Here's the AAPL update because I know many of you are thinking "Oversold/Dead cat bounce"

Here are the probabilities....

 Longer term I always expected AAPL to make a sharp move down, probably to a new low for this leg down and then see a bigger/longer move up. This 60 min chart overall is bearish for AAPL's future, but it does show a long term relative positive divergence at the November lows and a leading positive afterward.

 The 30 min chart shows the same thing, AAPL falling from $700 and a positive divergence in to the mid November lows with a leading positive divergence after that.

 This is the rally from the mid-November lows on a 15 min chart, this says closer term we are going to see AAPL fall from these bounce highs, this is what I expected, there are some initial small positive divergences at AAPL's recent lows from this leg down suggesting a small bounce, THIS IS NOT THE MOVE I EXPECT THAT IS SHOWN ON THE 30/60 MIN CHARTS, I think AAPL will see more downside before that move develops.

 10 min chart shows accumulation at the lows and a bounce from there, that was all used up, but we have another leading positive divergence now, it should be able to take AAPL a bit higher, but I don't consider this a high probability trade, you can probably make it work, but you need to be on the ball.

 3 min leading positive in the same are.

And the 2 min as well.

I can't give you any idea of price targets, I can keep an eye on flow and let you know when there's heavier distribution signaling a change to the downside.

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