Here re the charts so you can see how I arrived there, the importance of the Euro and USD is that the Euro and the market have a positive relationship, they move together for the most part, this is somewhat because of events in the EU, but it has more to do with the fact that the Euro, of all the currencies in the world, makes up half of the U.S. Dollar Index which trades almost exactly the opposite the market and risk assets like oil, etc. It is harder to see inverse correlations and divergences like the dollar/Spx, it is easier to see them with the Euro/Spx and they work out to be about the same.
Yesterday's parabolic move in the EUR/USD (red) and today's attempt to reverse with a consolidation (orange). It's important that the Euro have some strength to support the market .
Close up of the pair today, you see the move up and then consolidation. Since there's no definitive move in the pair to the upside, something must be triggering the market, expectations of upside here so we'll look at 3C.
This is the 1 min chart for the US Dollar Index Futures, they move opposite the Euro and market, they do have a small negative divergence in them, this should allow the Euro some room to the upside on a short term basis, but that's all we were looking for.
The Euro Futures 1 min chart is showing the initial move off the lows on a 1 min chart, then a negative divergence causing a consolidation, with a positive divergence in to the consolidation, this should send the Euro and EUR/USD higher along with stocks.
The big picture US Dollar Index Futures 30 min chart shows the positive divergence and a continuing healthy 3C trend, this is why the Euro reversed so hard to the down side as the Dollar reversed to the upside.
On the same timeframe, the Euro 30 min futures with a negative divergence at the top above $1.31 and the nasty move down that shows 3C consolidation, note there's a small relative positive divergence now suggesting the Euro bounces, this is exactly what we were looking for to occur today in yesterday's currency updates.
This is the USD intraday on a 2 min chart showing a negative divergence, this should also allow the Euro to rise.
The FXE (Euro ETF) chart shows a leading positive divergence today, again in line with the Euro rising short term.
The $USD ETF again on a 5 min timeframe shows the positive divergence that turned the EUR/USD down from $1.31 to that sharp parabolic drop, it also shows a recent negative divergence for a pullback, again supportive of the Euro short term ONLY.
Euro ETF 5 min with a leading positive divergence, that's a LOT of confirmation.
Longer term-big picture the USD 15 min chart with a large positive divergence sending it higher
The same timeframe on the Euro with a large negative divergence sending it lower.
So we have a lot of confirmation for a short term move higher on a corrective basis in the Euro which is supportive of the market. Bigger picture, the Euro is headed down and will take the market with it
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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