Follow Up on TLT-These are the clue you need

Yesterday at 2:43 p.m. I posted, "Money Flowing Out of TLT" and today after a 4 day rally that moved this very low Beta asset up 1.54%%, today it dropped nearly 1% (0.92%) to retrace nearly 2/3rds  of a 4 day rally in 1 day.

That's not the point though, TLT is a 20+ year Treasury fund ETF, essentially this is the flight to safety trade. If you are a long only Mutual Fund manager as most are and you know the market is going to either be flat and put your portfolio at participation risk with no probabilities on your side or you feel strongly that the market is going to decline, you can't go short like the rest of us can; that's one of the big differences between a Mutual fund and a Hedge Fund. What can you do? You can move asset allocation from risk assets like stocks and put it in to Treasuries like TLT or perhaps Utilities, the safe haven trades.

Conversely, when you feel there's about to be a move in the market and you want to participate, you pull your money from safe haven assets and put it in to Risk assets like stocks.

Yesterday when I warned money was flowing out of TLT it was only 3C that told me that, here's what it looked like...

 *This chart is rolled back exactly 1 day to 4 p.m. 12/06/2012 so you see what it looked like yesterday*

The start of the 4 day move up is in white at the positive divergence on the 3rd, interestingly the day before we started to notice something very strange going on the afternoon of the 4th, which is where we first see some trouble brewing in TLT, then a gap up with even stronger leading negative distribution, it's around this time I posted that money was flowing (not trickling) out of TLT.

What does that suggest? I think it suggests that smart money sees an opportunity to make more than an average of 0.39% a day in some other risk assets because they expect a pop in the market.

 Here's the same chart but as of today's close, note that there wasn't any additional heavy distribution today, it's not as if money is really trying to get out of TLT longer term like we saw with AAPL for a while.

In fact on a fast moving 2 min chart that picks up all the little moves, we have basically trend confirmation, sideways, not much going on.

My interpretation, money was re-allocated late yesterday or at least pulled from the safe haven asset because as we all have seen the highest probabilities are still for a nasty down trend, but this Tuesday late in the afternoon we saw something that said, "Not yet, we have one more game to play before we let that slide down begin".

I don't know how quickly smart money could re-allocate about a half a billion dollars, but I doubt it could be done in the last few hours of the trading day without raising some red flags for the predatory HFTs to front-run.

In any case, this is just another little sneaky sign that you can pay attention to that will help tell you the story once you start putting the facts together.